Influence of Ambiguity on Success of Public Infrastructural Megaprojects in Kenya

The objective of this study was to investigate the influence of ambiguity on success of public infrastructural megaprojects in Kenya. The need for this study arose from the thesis that ambiguity is a key cause of complexity that results in infrastructural megaprojects being delivered over budget, behind schedule, with benefit shortfalls, over and over again. The study was designed as multiple-method research based on virtual constructionist ontology recognizing that complexity is the mid-point between order and disorder. A cross-sectional census survey of completed public infrastructural megaprojects was conducted using two interlinked questionnaires. Quantitative data was analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics while qualitative data was analyzed using expert judgment, scenario mapping and retrospective sense-making. The projects surveyed majorly utilized fixed price contracts with the outcome of increased delivery within budget than within schedule. The results showed that ambiguity had significant negative influence on process and overall success of public infrastructural megaprojects but had no significant relationship with product and organizational success. Projects in which the client assumed responsibility for cost and schedule risk had higher chances of meeting both cost and schedule objectives. In order to manage the negative effects of ambiguity, we recommend a new perspective to contract design of public infrastructural megaprojects based on complexity science, blending both outcome and behavior-based contracts. Such contracts should ensure that, in the face of ambiguity, the contractors are able to act in the best interest of their clients and that the clients have access to quality Project Management Information Systems.