Oil and Gas Industry Strategy in Facing the Energy Transition Era: A Scenario Planning Approach for PT XYZ (Indonesian Natural Gas Transporter Company)

Energy transition has emerged as a pressing challenge for oil and gas companies, particularly those operating in midstream sectors such as PT XYZ. As demand shifts toward cleaner energy sources and regulatory frameworks evolve, strategic uncertainty has increased. This study aims to assist PT XYZ in anticipating future developments through a scenario planning approach. Using qualitative methods, the author incorporates insights from interviews with stakeholders including regulators, customers, and competitors and association along with PESTEL and Porter’s Five Forces analysis to identify key drivers shaping the industry. The study identifies two critical uncertainties: the direction of oil and gas investment and the pace of low-carbon/energy transition policy implementation. These are used to construct a 2x2 scenario matrix outlining four plausible futures: Dual-Track Acceleration, Gas Stronghold, Clean Leap, and Stuck in Transition. The author emphasizes that each scenario includes early warning signals and strategic implications to support management decision-making. Rather than predicting one fixed outcome, this framework is intended to guide PT XYZ in building flexible, forward-looking strategies. Scenario planning is presented as a useful tool to manage complexity and prepare for disruption in Indonesia’s energy sector.