Agricultural sector – economic growth nexus in Syria: analysis for review agricultural and economic policies

Assessing agriculture’s economic impact is crucial for policy reform and sustainable development. In Syria, it plays a key role, contributing 21% to GDP and 14% to employment. This study investigates the influence of the agricultural sector on economic growth in Syria, utilizing secondary time series data spanning the period from 2000 to 2022. The research employs descriptive analysis to outline the structural features of the sector, while multiple regression models and the Granger non-causality test are applied to examine causal dynamics. Empirical findings underscore the sector’s significant role in the Syrian economy. Specifically, variables such as the value of agricultural production, the volume of plant and animal product exports, and population size exhibit a statistically significant positive effect on GDP. Conversely, the export of live animals does not show a significant statistical relationship with GDP. The Granger causality test confirms a unidirectional causal linkage from agricultural production value, agricultural exports, and demographic expansion to GDP. Based on these outcomes, the study recommends revising agricultural and trade policies to boost productivity, enhance competitiveness, and improve Syria's agricultural exports.