Abstract

This study aims to conduct a Systematic Literature Review (SLR) to analyze and synthesize findings from existing literature on the potential for inflationary pressure in Indonesia stemming from credit growth and investment strength. This study evaluated 10 articles published in reputable journals indexed by Sinta and Scopus between 2012 and 2025. The SLR was conducted by identifying, selecting, and evaluating relevant studies published in the last five years. The synthesis results show that there is a consensus among researchers regarding the positive relationship between this aggregate growth and inflation risk, especially if it is dominated by consumer credit and investment in the non-tradable sector. The policy implications underscore the need for monetary and macroprudential policy coordination to manage liquidity and credit risk without hampering productive investment, which is vital for long-term economic growth.

Keywords

  • Credit Growth
  • Investment
  • Inflation
  • Indonesia

References

  1. Anggraeni, D., & Dwiputri, I. N. (2022). Variabel-variabel yang Mempengaruhi Inflasi di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 11(2), 119–128. https://doi.org/10.23960/jep.v11i2.490
  2. Anugrah, D. F., Muhardini, R., Soedarmono, W., & Cindyagita, Z. I. (2023). Determinants Of Inflation In Indonesia : Dynamics Over A Decade Determinants Of Inflation In Indonesia : Dynamics Over A Decade. Bank Indonesia, 1(1), 1–56.
  3. Anwar, A. I., & Akbar, A. (2018). The Effect Of Credit To The Inflation Rate Through Gross Domestic Product In Indonesia. EcceS (Economics, Social, and Development Studies), 5(2), 78. https://doi.org/10.24252/ecc.v5i2.7114
  4. Bank-Indonesia. (2022). Laporan Perekonomian Indonesia 2022. In BI (p. 230). Bank Indonesia. https://www.bi.go.id/id/publikasi/laporan/Documents/LPI_2022.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com
  5. Borio, C., & Gambacorta, L. (2017). Monetary policy and bank diminishing effectiveness? BIS: Monetary and Economic Department, 612.
  6. Brunnermeier, M. K., & Oehmke, M. (2012). Study on the formation and rheological properties of sucrose stearate lamellar liquid crystals. NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH-Working Paper 18398, 38(1), 1–90. https://doi.org/10.1080/01932691.2016.1147360
  7. Coker, M. (2025). Short-Term Inflation Forecasting In Sierra Leone: A Comparison of Vector Autoregressive VAR(P), Arimax, And Arima Models. SSRN Electronic Journal, 13(05), 9090–9111. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5289305
  8. Colunga-Ramos, L. F., & Cepeda, L. E. T. (2023). Effects of Supply and Demand Shocks on the Production and Inflation of Manufactured Goods at the Regional Level in the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic *.
  9. Coskun, Y., Sencer Atasoy, B., Morri, G., & Alp, E. (2018). Wealth Effects on Household Final Consumption: Stock and Housing Market Channels. In International Journal of Financial Studies (Vol. 6, Issue 2). https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs6020057
  10. Deviana, N. (2014). Analisis Pengaruh Suku Bunga Sbi, Suku Bunga Kredit Dan Nilai Tukar Terhadap Inflasi Di Indonesia Periode Tahun 2006-2012 Nyimas Deviana. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 12(2), 81–91.
  11. Eklou, K. (2023). The Anatomy of Monetary Policy Transmission in an Emerging Market. IMF Working Papers, 2023(146), 1. https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400247910.001
  12. Firmansyah, M., Boedirochminarni, A., Riyanto, W. H., & Tsalasa, A. R. A. (2024). Do Cashless Transactions and Credit Distribution Affect Inflation in Indonesia? Ecoplan, 7(2), 144–153. https://doi.org/10.20527/ecoplan.v7i2.728
  13. Hunjra, A. I., Azam, M., Wellalage, N. H., & Mishra, T. (2025). Inflation bites: The dynamic interdependence between financial market volatility and energy consumption during pandemic. International Review of Economics & Finance, 104, 104651. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2025.104651
  14. Kitchenham, B., & Charters, S. (2007). Guidelines for performing Systematic Literature Reviews in Software Engineering. Department of Computer Science University of Durham, UK, 126(5), 1–57. https://doi.org/10.1541/ieejias.126.589
  15. Krisnanda, G. H., & Loissa, A. F. (2023). Determinants of Credit Growth in Commercial Banks in Indonesia. Journal of Tourism Economics and Policy, 3(4), 282–295. https://doi.org/10.38142/jtep.v3i4.881
  16. Levrero, E. S., & Deleidi, M. (2017). The money creation process: A theoretical and empirical analysis for the US. MPRA Paper, 81970(2116), 0–33.
  17. Mamuaja, R. C., Saerang, I. S., & Tasik, H. H. D. (2024). Analysis of the Impact of Money Supply, Interest Rates, and Inflation on Bank Credit Growth in Indonesia Pre and Post Covid-19 Pandemic. Jurnal EMBA, 12(3), 892–901.
  18. Martauli, D., Amir, A., & Mustika, C. (2020). Analisis inflasi di lihat dari permintaan dan penawaran di Indonesia Tahun 2000-2018. E-Journal Perdagangan Industri Dan Moneter, 8(1), 1–10. https://doi.org/10.22437/pim.v8i1.7189
  19. Muritala, T. (2011). Investment , Inflation and Economic Growth : Empirical Evidence from Nigeria. Research Journal of Finance and Accounting, 2(5), 68–77. https://doi.org/10.5829/idosi.ijee.2012.03.04.121204
  20. Nanda Fitria, C., Silvia, V., & Seftarita, C. (2024). Does Bank Credit Fluctuation Affect Inflation? Evidence from Indonesia. International Journal of Finance, Economics and Business, 3(2), 107–119. https://doi.org/10.56225/ijfeb.v3i2.329
  21. Ngo, T. H. H., Hoang, N. M., & Truong, T. T. (2025). Vietnam’s Inflation During the Period 1995 – 2024 And Some Policy Implications. International Journal of Scientific Research and Management (IJSRM), 13(08), 9486–9493. https://doi.org/10.18535/ijsrm/v13i08.em01
  22. Purnomo, M. H., & Sudjana, K. (2023). Pengaruh Produk Domestik Bruto, Inflasi, Bi Rate Terhadap Pertumbuhan Kredit Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Bbri). Ekonomi & Bisnis, 22(2), 201–208. https://doi.org/10.32722/eb.v22i2.6351
  23. Putri, V. K. (2019). Analisis Pengaruh Jumlah Uang Beredar, Suku Bunga Sertifikat Bank Indonesia Dan Suku Bunga Kredit Investasi Terhadap Inflasi Di Indonesia. JOM Fekon, 4(1), 26–39.
  24. Rachmansyah, M. I. (2021). Analisis Pengaruh Inflasi, BI Rate, Giro Wajib Minimum Dan Non Performing Loans Terhadap Pertumbuhan Kredit. Jurnal Ekonomi & Pendidikan, 18(2), 207–217. https://scholar.archive.org/work/2fscyvbqojcrnorhtt54nnoex4/access/wayback/https://journal.uny.ac.id/index.php/jep/article/download/44100/pdf
  25. Rahim, M., Armawaddin, M., Rostin., Syarif, M., & Barani, L. O. S. (2023). Pengaruh Investasi dan Kredit Perbankan terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonesia. Jurnal Progres Ekonomi Pembangunan (JPEP), 8(2), 171–182. https://journal.uho.ac.id/index.php/jpep
  26. Rakhmat, Warjiyo, P., & Sadli, A. M. (2022). The Influence of Exchange Rate and Foreign Capital on the Performance of Inflation Targeting Framework in Indonesia. International Journal of Sustainable Development and Planning, 17(5), 1585–1592. https://doi.org/10.18280/ijsdp.170523
  27. Rizkullah, A. R., Suhel, & Andaiyani, S. (2023). Determinants of Credit Growth: An Empirical Study of Commercial Banks in Indonesia. Journal of Applied Economic Research, 22(2), 404–424. https://doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2023.22.2.017
  28. Rohmah, N., & Suseno, D. A. (2025). Jurnal REP ( Riset Ekonomi Pembangunan ) INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL FACTORS OF MSME CREDIT GROWTH IN INDONESIA : A MARKOV SWITCHING APPROACH. 10(1), 1–16. https://doi.org/10.31002/rep.v10i1.2585
  29. Santosa, B. A. (2017). Analisis Inflasi di Indonesia. Prosiding Seminar Nasional Multi Disiplin Ilmu & Call Papers UNISBANK Ke-3 (SENDI_U 3) 2017, 445–452.
  30. Schito, M., Klimavičiūtė, L., & Pál, R. (2024). Investment decisions in a high-inflation environment. In EIB Working Paper (Issue August).
  31. Silvia, E. D., Wardi, Y., & Aimon, H. (2013). Analisis Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Investasi, dan Inflasi di Indonesia. Kajian Ekonomi, I(02), 224–243. https://media.neliti.com/media/publications/7109-ID-analisis-konsumsi-masyarakat-di-indonesia.pdf
  32. Sutawijaya, A. (2012). Pengaruh Faktor-Faktor Ekonomi Terhadap Inflasi Di Indonesia. Jurnal Organisasi Dan Manajemen, 8(2), 85–101. https://doi.org/10.33830/jom.v8i2.237.2012
  33. Wahyudi, H. (2024). The Influence of Long-term and Short-term Variables on the Oil Prices, Money Supply, Policy Rates, Output Gaps, Rupiah Exchange Rate and Gross Fixed Capital Formation on Inflation in Indonesia. WSEAS Transactions on Business and Economics, 21, 944–956. https://doi.org/10.37394/23207.2024.21.79
  34. Yanti, Y. W. T. F., & Soebagiyo, D. (2022). Analisis Pengaruh JUB , Suku Bunga , Dan Nilai Tukar. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 8(2), 265–277.
  35. Ybrayev, Z., Shamar, B., & Mamatova, K. (2024). Domestic inflation decomposition in a small open economy: Evidence from import price dynamics in Kazakhstan. Central Bank Review, 24(4), 100179. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cbrev.2024.100179
  36. Yeni, P., Amar, S., & Satrianto, A. (2019). Pengaruh Suku Bunga, Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR) dan Pertumbuhan Kredit terhadap Inflasi di Indonesia. Jurnal Ecogen, 1(3), 557. https://doi.org/10.24036/jmpe.v1i3.5026
  37. Yulyanti, S., Jamil, P. C., & Diana, H. (2023). Pengaruh Variabel Manroekonomi Terhadap Pertumbuhan Kredit Bank Umum di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi KIAT, 35(2), 19–24.